UK GDP grew by 0.5% in February, before the impacts of the conflict, and by 0.5% in the three months to February compared with the three months ago, but the ONS revised GDP growth down in 2025 Q3 and Q4 from 0.1% to 0.0%, meaning the GDP flatlined in 2025 H2. The Bank of England kept interest rates at 3.75% in April as expected, as it waits to see the impacts of higher oil and energy prices before raising interest rates.

The CPA’s Spring forecasts, published on 5 May, assume the Bank will raise interest rates twice in 2026 H2.

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