House Building Target of the New Government (July 2024): With a new government coming in with a significant majority, the new house building target is 1.5 million homes over the 5-year parliament, equivalent to 300,000 net additional homes per year for 5 years.

Both major parties wanted more homes at the national level but fewer homes at the local level so how the new government overcomes this cognitive dissonance internally (local vs central government) and externally (existing homeowner voter views) will be critical to its success.

After two years of sharp falls, house building is likely to be 40% lower than 300,000 net additional homes per year, so initial growth in house building levels from a low base should be relatively achievable as interest rates and mortgage rates gradually fall in 2024 H2 and during 2025.

The greater problem will be getting anywhere near its target. Getting to 300,000 net additional homes per year would require a 66% increase in house building and maintaining it at that level.

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