The fundamentals in the construction industry remain essentially unchanged from three months ago, but the risks and uncertainties have increased significantly. On the positive side, activity for house builders continues to recover gradually, and a renewed focus from the government on capital expenditure may boost public sector house building and infrastructure in the long-term.

On the negative side, in the near-term, private housing rm&i activity remains subdued, and the impact of rises in the National Living Wage and employers’ National Insurance Contributions, and lower thresholds, may hit contractor margins. Furthermore, increasing concerns over government debt suggest that the government may either increase taxes again or cut back on its spending plans, potentially doing both.

Construction output is still expected to rise over the forecast period, but the only clear certainty is uncertainty.

• Construction output rises by 1.9% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026
• Private housing output rises by 4.0% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026
• Private housing repair, maintenance and improvement to rise by 2.0% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026
• Infrastructure output to rise by 1.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026
• Industrial output to rise by 0.9% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026

I'm interested in:

• Construction Products Association
• CPA