At the Timber Development UK Global Market Conference, Markus Henningsson of SCA delivered a detailed picture of global sawmilling trends and what they could mean for the timber sector in 2026. His presentation, Can the UK Meet Demand?, explored the supply and demand balance across key regions, from North America to China and Europe, before turning to Nordic production and future prospects for softwood markets.
Markus began by giving his perspective on global consumption. “2021 was when consumption peaked,” he said, noting that around 350 million m³ of softwood was consumed worldwide at that time. “Since then, consumption has gone down around 10% but, in the end, what’s important is timber supply and demand and the balance between the two.”
He divided timber use into three main categories: “Living with wood” for visible interior products, “Building with wood” for timber used for structures and cladding, and the lower-grade timber material used for packaging. He noted that around two-thirds of timber used in construction globally goes into repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) rather than newbuild. “RMI is crucial to understand if you want to understand how the market will develop,” he said.
Because sawmills rely on the availability of logs, Markus stressed that log supply is the real limiting factor when it comes to investing and introducing new sawmills to meet demand.
“If we build a new sawmill and there are no logs, then we are in a lot of trouble,” he remarked. SCA’s research suggests significant regional variation in log supplies, with the long term demand for wood products expected to grow faster than the supply, according to the CAGR 2020-2030.
“In North America you will continue to have a decline in the availability of logs in British Columbia and in the Northeastern US,” he said, citing bark-beetle damage and conservation issues. “In the South US, however, you have yellow pine growing and we expect increasing availability.”
Across Europe, the picture is dominated by problems caused by the bark-beetle outbreak and the subsequent drop in felling. Russian log supplies, meanwhile, continue to be illegal due to the ongoing sanctions following the war in Ukraine. In South America, Radiata Pine plantations are increasingly being replaced by Eucalyptus “because that gives better profitability for the landowners.”
From a long-term standpoint, however, Markus remained positive. “Demand for softwood grows with GDP growth,” he explained. “From a long-term perspective, being a sawmiller and forest owner is a good place to be.”
Turning to the differences between the regions, he said that there was “pent-up demand for housing in the US” as the population grows and more people need new homes, though he noted that affordability continues to be a major barrier. “Mortgage rates were a few years ago 2.5%, but are now up to 7%. That creates a huge issue for young people,” he said. While builders expect a “small increase next year”, he warned that “no one expects a fast or strong increase in consumption”.
In Canada, production fell 5% in the first half of 2025 and could decline further following recent tariff changes. “Anti-dumping and countervailing duties were elevated from 14% to 34% in August,” Markus said. “All exporters to the US will pay another 10% tariff.”
While this will be difficult for Canadian mills, Markus noted that “what’s negative for one is positive for someone else”, with US log producers gaining a competitive edge.
China remains the world’s dominant import market, Markus said, taking around 16.6 million m³ of sawn timber last year. “It’s all about China,” he told the audience. Although construction has slowed, “the GDP in China this year will land somewhere around 4.5% – more than any Western country can dream of.”
In North Africa, particularly Egypt, Markus described conditions as stable. “Last year they imported 5.1 million m³,” he said. “The average age in the region is below 25 years, so all these people will create families, giving the country huge potential in the coming 10 years.” Stock levels in Alexandria remain favourable and dollar availability is good, supporting steady trade.
Continental Europe faces the sharpest contraction. “German harvesting has gone down from 80 to 60 million m³, and the forecast for this year is another decline,” Markus said. “Total production in Europe is down about 10% from the peak.” Nordic production, by contrast, “is more or less back to normal levels”.
He noted a growing structural shift: “Pine production so far this year is up 9%, while spruce is stable.” With bark-beetle losses reducing spruce supply, “it will be of high importance that we work on implementing pine as an accepted species in construction”.
In his conclusion, Markus struck a measured but hopeful tone. “We see actually no market globally where we believe that the market will decline. We see no booming market either, but more or less all markets will recover somewhat during the next year. North America will rebalance, stocks are low in most markets, and German production is decreasing.”
That combination, he said, could bring a firmer balance between supply and demand in 2026 – and a more stable future for the global timber trade.
You can view the full slides from this presentation online here.
