UK CPI inflation in September 2025 remained at 3.8%, the same as in August and July, according to the Bank of England. This was lower than the 4.0% that most economists and the Bank of England had expected. September 2025 was expected to be the peak of CPI inflation, and, as a result, financial markets reacted —or arguably overreacted — to the latest data point.

They now anticipate a 60% chance of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in December, after previously assuming that a rate cut was most likely in February 2026.

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