Weekly Economic and Construction Update – 14 June 2024

Weekly Economic and Construction Update – 14 June 2024

Date Published

17 June 2024

Document Type

Category

Author

Jennie Ward

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Summary

Be cautious using the output data, as the ONS appears to have been consistently overestimating output since 2022. The issues appear to affect all sectors but are most visible in housing RM&I, as previously highlighted by the CPA. The ONS problems may be due to two reasons: ONS underestimating prices and so overestimating volume when removing price from the value data, plus survivor bias in its contractor survey when grossing up to the whole industry due to the sharp rise in insolvencies.

Construction output overall in April 2024 fell 1.4% month-on-month, which follows two months of contraction in February (2.0%) and March (0.4%). The monthly fall was driven by falls in both in new work (1.9%) and repair and maintenance work (0.8%). In the three months to April, output fell 2.2%.