In this article, we explore how the Middle East crisis could once again reshape the UK timber trade, as the escalating situation begins to close crucial shipping lanes, disrupt energy markets, and threatens to spill into a wider regional conflict.
The phrase ‘unprecedented disruption’ over the past six years has probably lost all meaning, as the sector has been hit by a relentless succession of global shocks. First, the COVID-19 pandemic rewrote the rules of demand and port logistics. Then, the invasion of Ukraine severed ties with one of the world’s largest softwood and birch plywood exporters. Now, in 2026, a third wave may have arrived.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East after the US and Israel incursion into Iran is a rising threat to the global economy – and no one really knows what the outcome will be. While the short, medium, and longer term stability and prosperity of the region may be uncertain, the impact is now being felt by anyone dealing with international supply chains.
The Persian Gulf may only handle 2-3% of global volumes, but due to what is being carried (oil and gas), along with the threat to ships in the region, the impact is beginning to ripple through the global economy – with insurance premiums going through the roof. Shipping companies are now choosing to reroute vessels coming from Asia away from the Suez Canal to send them around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to each journey.
The UK timber industry is even more exposed to this disruption to trade from the East than the past, as Russian timbers – and in particular – Birch – was abandoned in favour of Asian alternatives following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Before then, the UK used to import nearly half a million cubic metres of timber from Russia. Unfortunately, those very alternatives are now the most vulnerable to these maritime bottlenecks.
Meanwhile, kilning continues to be an energy-intensive process. While there has been significant investment by the industry to shift towards biomass and sustainable sawmills, the price of gas does still impact sawmills, as does the price of oil – which will affect lorry costs everywhere. This will affect our domestic sawmillers, just as it will our international partners – which means that local sources are also likely to be impacted.
The industry is more resilient than it was in 2020, and with the experience of handling supply crises across the pandemic and invasion of Ukraine, we expect our members are more prepared than most. However, it is crucial as ever to maintain close relationships between importers, merchants, and end-users, to work together through these times of disruption, and prepare your business to weather the impacts.
